Often distributors make various claims regarding the failure of distributors due to lack if effort. Most of us have read the reasoning by distributors that people failed because they didn’t utilize the help available from the team, because people think it’s get rich quick and quit when they don’t see instant results or you didn’t work the fool proof system. However, this is not the case. The mathematics of the compensation plan guarantees extreme losses regardless of individual effort.

To prove this I would like to focus on the main structure of the MonaVie opportunity, which is distributors are paid 10% of their lesser leg. This creates in a perfectly balance downline a maximum gross payout of 5% since distributors are only paid on one leg.

Let’s use an example assuming that you and your entire downline purchase $200 per month of juice. Let’s also assume that you have 10 individuals on each side, for a total downline of 20. This means your entire downline is spending $4,000 per month (20 x $200). You would be paid 10% on only one leg, (10% of $2,000) or $200 gross commissions. You broke even. Therefore for every 1 person in the “opportunity” who breaks even, 20 must be cash flow negative. What is true for one individual “tree” is true for all. There is no way for anybody to make money without 20 people losing no matter how much effort or what system you are plugged into, it is a simple case of mathematics.

I am not stating that it is impossible for anybody’s downline to make money, just that the only way to do so is by them bringing 20 additional distributors who will lose into the “opportunity”. It is similar to a poker game, the only way for one to win is for others to lose, 20 others in this particular case. Everybody at the table can’t win no matter how good they may be. While it is possible for any one person to make money, and theoretically lots, it is mathematically impossible for everyone to make money regardless of effort or the system they are “plugged into”.

I believe there are actually many people involved in MonaVie who believe they are helping friends and family have the chance to improve their financial situation. I don’t think everybody in MonaVie is trying to rip off their friends and family. I think many do not see the mathematics and have trusted the one one who introduced them to MonaVie. To those distributors: please see the harm you are doing, please realize the next time you sign up someone you care about that there is less than a 5% chance they will not lose money and the only way for that to happen is for them to bring an additional 20 losers into the scheme.

Thus is the nature of the binary compensation plan when used within an endless recruiting marketing scheme. I am personally unaware of any such scheme which has had even a 5% success rate and there are plenty of them out there (see this Skeptoid article). MonaVie’s own IDS shows less than 2% of distributors cash flow positive.

Now I am aware there any several ways to get paid in MonaVie but most of the lucrative plans are reserved for those at the top and have no effect on the statistical odds of being profitable. First Order Bonus and Star Maker could have a slight impact on this analysis but as these are not recurring income or the major income stream I did not include the impact. To be fair, I also did not include other expenses associated with the “opportunity” such as the cost of travel, juice for tastings, motivational books, CDs, seminars, branding, or marketing materials which I believe would make the potential for profits far worse.

I am very open to hear any potential corrections to the above analysis from distributors, or any others, who may understand the plan better than I do. My goal is to be as accurate as possible without exaggeration so distributors can realize the damage that is required in this “opportunity” and to be able to see the truth that was omitted when they were shown the plan

If you were thinking that MonaVie was going to make you rich, it might be worth thinking like BobbyJ. He put his heart and soul in the business, converting his truck, and putting up YouTube videos. He got nowhere and explains why with common sense… the product is just 20 times more expensive that other competing products. It’s an impossible sales job for distributors unless they try to make MonaVie seem better than other similar juices (which is a proven lie).

The CEO didn’t start out at janitor and work his way up to CEO. The typical CEO graduates from a very difficult business school and almost typically starts with a salary upwards of $150,000 a year in an executive position. I have not seen MonaVie value an education like this and just start people at Gold or Ruby levels.

There’s another major difference… in some industries there are often significantly more people at the top than at the bottom. Think of your average restaurant. How many chefs do they have for every dishwasher or bus boy? I think you get where this going.

If you think that MonaVie isn’t a pyramid, why not look at the tips outlined by the FTC. I particularly like this article on illegal pyramids, because they add much needed common sense.

Warren Buffett has invested in Network Marketing company Pampered Chef. You can read a little why he did that in this CNN article. Some will be quick to ask, “What’s the difference between Pampered Chef and MonaVie?”

When you go to a Pampered Chef you get to see the objective benefits of their products. From one Pampered Chef distributor in the above article:

“‘How many times have you pulled those brownies out of the oven to find that they are done around the edges but still not set in the middle?’ she asks, as she lifts a 12-inch diameter cookie from the Pampered Chef’s round baking stone. ‘On our stoneware the heat is distributed evenly, and your cookie will come out perfectly.’”

You can clearly see that the product works right there in front of you before you drop a dime. If it doesn’t work, you don’t pay for it. That’s what I mean objective benefits. It’s clearly observable by all parties.

What objective benefits occur at a get-together for a health product? Do you drink it and are you instantly able to do more push-ups? We know our bodies don’t work that way (unless there’s adrenaline involved). The “benefits” of MonaVie are subjective and very possibly due to the placebo effect, since we know that MonaVie lacks nutrition.

Pampered Chef’s products seem comparable in quality and in price with what retail store Williams-Sonoma offers. Using that link above and the information there, we know that MonaVie lacks nutrition (it’s main purpose) making its quality quite questionable. Also MonaVie Active’s retail price of $45 for 25 ounces is, ounce for ounce, about 10 to 20 times more expensive than V8 Fusion Acai Berry or Tropicana Pure Acai Raspberry… and that’s not to mention that Welch’s Grape Juice was shown to have more nutrition in previous paragraph.

So to recap:

• MLM products that are health-based have difficulty proving their value to consumers. MLM based health products should always be a red flag to consumers.
• MonaVie’s product by all measurable methods falls short making it’s quality quite questionable. That’s not going to Warren Buffett’s sign of approval.
• Pricing a product at 10x to 20x more than comparable products without showing the quality is also not going to endear you Warren Buffert’s business team.

Click here for the IDS from MonaVie Canada (CANADA 2008)

Click here for the IDS from MonaVie Global (GLoBAL (Mid-Year) 2009).

As I post this it is November 26th, 2010. It is nearly 2011 and MonaVie’s Canada IDS is still stuck in 2008. Their Global IDS is about a year and a half out of date. However, that isn’t want I want to focus on with this post.

If you open up those links in new windows and compare the numbers you’ll find some stunning similarities:

Distributors who don’t qualify for commissions: Canada – 86%… Globally – 87%
Distributors Star Level or below: Canada – 82%… Globally – 85%
Distributors who reach Star 1000 level: Canada – 4%… Globally – 4%
Distributors who reach Star 1000 level: Canada – 4%… Globally – 4%
Distributors who reach Bronze level: Canada – 1%… Globally – 1%

You can see that above the Bronze level, both IDS are 1% or less.

What does this mean? The mathematics in the compensation plan prove that success is limited to a few. Exactly like playing the lottery, the odds of success are clearly pre-determined.

MonaVie proponents like Orrin Woodward suggest that lack of success is a result of the individual. Since the system fails in the same way in Canada as it does in the rest of the world, we can easily determine that it isn’t the individual… it is the plan.